“Measured Data” Relationship Between Airsoft Shooting Distance and Grouping (10–30m Actual Data & Regression Formula)

Summary

From this measurement experiment:

The farther the distance, the worse the grouping (less accurate the shots).
Although you can aim a headshot at 50 m, it’s questionable whether you can reliably hit it every time with 100% accuracy.
The “shooting performance of a person + gun” can be expressed as a quadratic function rather than a simple linear one.
(It’s not just that grouping simply doubles every time distance doubles.)

Location: ZEEK

Gun used: Nobita Rifle (VSR-based)

Optics: Trijicon SRO 2.5 MOA

Setup: Table, no sling, support only by elbow.

created by Rinker

HTGベーシック（H.T.G.Basic）

¥1,920 (2026/01/10 04:56:59時点 Amazon調べ-詳細)

BBs: HTG U.I. 0.43 g bio BBs

Distances tested: 10 m, 20 m, 30 m

At each distance, shot 12 sets of 10 shots at A3-sized paper targets.

Excluded the single best and worst grouping sets as outliers.

From the remaining 10 sets, median values were calculated to represent final grouping scores.

	10m	20m	30m
median	26.5mm	58.5mm	100mm

A quadratic regression was calculated from the data (excluding first and last 10 shots):

y≈0.0458×2+1.817x+4.345

with　R2≈0.903

Using this formula, estimated grouping becomes:

Distance	10m	20m	30m	40m	50m
Predicted Grouping	27mm	59mm	100mm	150mm	210mm

Distance	60m	70m	80m	90m	100m
Predicted Grouping	278mm	356mm	443mm	539mm	644mm

So grouping increases rapidly with distance, especially past ~30 m.

This experiment allowed the invisible performance of accuracy to be quantified numerically!

By creating a statistical model of grouping vs. distance, you can visualize how hard it gets to keep tight groupings farther away.

(Thanks again to those who pointed out corrections — extremely helpful!)

Author: Nobita

Engaged in creative activities using tools like 3D printing (3DP)

I sell my products on BASE.

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